Apiary Forecast: a brilliant new tool for every beekeeper

Introduction

Fortunately, our local association secretary doesn’t have to wait for committee approval before sending out most information to the members so I heard the good news hot off the press this week. I jumped at the chance to sign up for Apiary Forecast which launched recently and is designed to help beekeepers make sense of the weather in relation to honey bee welfare. I was also very interested to discover that it has been set up by beekeeper and IT specialist John Richardson from Kintyre. I was brought up there so his experiences of challenging and fast-changing beekeeping weather resonates with me.

John has over 30 years’ experience in IT working initially in Information Security and Governance. He has held posts in various organisation such as NHS Supply Chain, DHL, Department of Health and DXC Technology working on many critical projects. Any project that John becomes involved with is executed with pragmatism and diligence which is good testimony to his ability to produce a great tool for us that will evolve as new information becomes available.

Like me, John has also read too many Facebook beekeeper boasts like getting a first colony inspection done in February during a one-off unseasonably warm day. He has also seen potential beekeepers hold back from getting bees because they lack confidence, or encouragement from others. So, he used his own skills to design an app that will support new beekeepers and help them learn about when to open up a hive, and when not to. Apiary Forecast is not just for new beekeepers though and there is a wealth of information that will help us all be better beekeepers.

A few weeks ago, Apiary Forecast started out as being available for Kintyre beekeepers only. John is secretary of The Kintyre and Mid Argyll Beekeepers’ Association and very keen to support local beekeeping. Fortunately for us, John realised the potential for supporting the wider beekeeping community and quickly rolled out Apiary Forecast to the rest of Scotland, and the UK. For John to offer this service to the rest of the world he needs to have access to accurate data, and this may happen. He will explain himself how it all works. Thank you, John.

Apiary Forecast: helping beekeepers read the weather through the bees

Apiary Forecast started with two simple frustrations we’ve all shared at some point or another, I’d imagine. A normal weather forecast can tell me whether it’ll be warm, wet, windy or bright. What it doesn’t really tell me is what that means for the bees. Is it suitable for opening a hive? Are bees likely to be able to use the forage that’s flowering? Is a colony under stores pressure because the weather has prevented useful intake recently? Is it a day that might support swarm movement if a colony is already at that point? And the other question, “are we in a dearth?” I never actually got a straight answer to that from anyone. Those are not the same questions, and unsurprisingly they don’t always have the same answer. That’s why I built Apiary Forecast.

It isn’t intended to replace a beekeeper’s judgement. It isn’t there to tell anyone what to do. It’s there to help beekeepers pause, interpret the day more carefully, and think about what the weather may mean for bees rather than simply what the weather feels like to us.

Why Apiary Forecast helps newer beekeepers

For newer beekeepers, one of the hardest things to learn is that a nice day is not always a good beekeeping day. There you are, looking out the from the kitchen window, eyeing up that bee suit and getting ready to grab your smoker.  But, wait! It can still be a little too windy for comfortable hive work. It might even be technically warm enough, yet feel too cold in the breeze. It can be bright for a spell, then showery with the side effect of making inspections awkward, and darkly comedic as you slap the roof back on and run for shelter. Some bees may be flying but not necessarily bringing in much. Flowers might be open, but not necessarily yielding nectar because it’s too cold, or because the bees can’t work the flowers efficiently.

New beekeepers are often told to consider temperature, rain, wind, colony strength, forage, stores and swarm risk, but those things don’t always come together neatly. It can be overwhelming. This is where Apiary Forecast tries to make those relationships much easier to see, and to work with.

The Inspection Outlook helps explain why a day may be suitable, marginal or best avoided for opening colonies.

The Forage Outlook helps separate the plant-side forage potential from bee access, nectar support and possible stores pressure. This is absolutely central to good beekeeping because seasonal flowering doesn’t always mean nectar and your colonies might be burning through more stores than you think!

The Swarm Outlook looks at whether the weather may support swarm movement if a colony is already preparing to issue, while making clear that it doesn’t predict that a swarm will happen.

These explanations help newer beekeepers build judgement so you become more confident, and aware of how much the weather really drives your bee’s behaviours.

It’s useful for experienced beekeepers too

Experienced beekeepers will tell you they don’t need a website to tell them how to keep bees. But I think we all benefit from being reminded what the bees are experiencing. One of the things I’ve become more aware of over my time keeping bees is the stress we place on our colonies, even when we’re doing something routine. We talk about just having a quick look as if it’s neutral. It absolutely isn’t.

Opening a hive radically changes the colony environment. Even a short inspection can disturb the brood nest, release warmth, change humidity and disrupt what the bees are trying to regulate.

Sometimes that inspection is necessary, of course. Good beekeeping isn’t about never opening hives. But it should always be about having a reason, choosing the moment well, and remembering that the colony pays a cost when we interfere, no matter how experienced we think we are.

One of the main effects of chilling the brood isn’t immediate, you may think you’ve gotten away with it but what you may have done is created a frame or two of stunted growth. I’m sure that’s something you’d want to avoid if you could.

That’s where Apiary Forecast can be useful even to experienced beekeepers. Not because it knows better than the beekeeper at the apiary, but because it acts as a prompt for important questions that do sometimes get brushed aside.

Is this really a good inspection day?
Is the wind worse than it looks?
Is the feels-like temperature low?
Are showers likely to interrupt the work?
Is there a proper reason to open the colony today?
Could this actually wait?

Those are healthy questions to ask.

Guidance, not instruction

I want to be very clear about this: Apiary Forecast is guidance. The final decision always sits with the beekeeper on site. There will always be cases where experienced beekeepers make a judgement that the tool would describe as marginal. A short, purposeful inspection by experienced people in a reasonably sheltered apiary is not the same as a new beekeeper doing a long, uncertain inspection in poor conditions. Equally, there will be days where a forecast looks broadly usable, but the actual apiary says otherwise. Perhaps the wind is funneling differently. Perhaps the colony is weaker than expected. Perhaps the bees are unsettled.

That’s why Apiary Forecast is not designed to be an instruction engine. Think of it as a decision-support tool. It highlights risks, explains likely limits and helps beekeepers think through the day. The beekeeper still makes the decision. Just don’t make a decision that leaves you standing around trying to inspect with a brolly in your hand.

What does forage really mean?

Forage is more complicated than what’s flowering? Forage is where I think Apiary Forecast has become especially interesting. There’s a common assumption that if something is flowering, it must be useful forage. In practice, it’s far more complicated than that, but paradoxically, quite simple too.

A plant may be flowering but not yielding much nectar. Nectar secretion can be affected by temperature, soil moisture, rainfall, humidity, sunshine and time of day. Pollen can be less accessible when flowers are damp. Wind can make it harder for bees to fly, harder to land and harder to work flowers efficiently. A colony can be surrounded by flowers and still struggle to bring in useful stores if the weather is working against it. This is important for understanding stores pressure.

A colony may not be in a true dearth, but if poor weather blocks access for several days, it can still burn through stores and, unsurprisingly, become a little tetchy due to hunger. This is a real risk, especially in places where the weather is changeable and the season can be uneven.

Apiary Forecast tries to separate those ideas:

Forage potential asks what the season, location and source profile suggest could be available.

Bee access asks whether bees can actually fly and work what is there.

Nectar and pollen confidence considers whether conditions support useful plant reward and bee use.

Stores and dearth pressure highlights when colonies may deserve closer attention.

That is not the same as telling a beekeeper to feed, but it is a prompt to look, heft, observe and judge. Then take corrective action if needed.

The accuracy has steadily improved

Apiary Forecast has also changed a lot since the first version just a few weeks ago. At the start, it was mainly about interpreting weather in a more bee-relevant way. But, and here’s a technical term I’ve been avoiding, the algorithm has steadily become more local and more evidence led. It now uses location, elevation and local-development timing so that different parts of the country are not treated as if they all move through the season at the same pace.

A coastal Kintyre apiary, a London garden, an upland site, a sheltered lowland apiary and an island apiary should not all be read as if their forage season is running on the same clock. Because it doesn’t. And it won’t surprise you to learn that the further north you go, the later the start in season. Likewise, the higher your elevation, that has an effect too. As does exposure, and Apiary Forecast even takes coastal proximity into account.

Members can also save private apiary locations and choose a site setting such as sheltered garden or village edge, open or exposed, coastal or island-exposed, upland or moor-edge, valley or frost-pocket. That helps the forecast interpret the site more sensibly, especially if your apiary isn’t near an actual settlement. The biggest recent improvement, though, and one I’m really proud of is the forage-source evidence layer.

Apiary Forecast uses derived Plant Atlas 2020 evidence in its live forage model. That means the model is not relying only on broad assumptions about what might be present in a region. It now uses proper, official regional plant distribution evidence to help shape forage-source confidence for plant-side pollen and nectar interpretation.

It still doesn’t mean Apiary Forecast knows exactly what’s flowering beside every hive. No responsible tool can claim that. But the model is now much better grounded. It brings together modern weather data, local-development timing, elevation, exposure, regional forage profiles and Plant Atlas 2020 evidence. That gives a far stronger basis for asking: what are bees likely to be able to use today?

Education

Yes, Apiary Forecast is a tool. Yes, I want beekeepers to use it. But its most important value may actually be educational. It helps newer beekeepers understand why the weather matters in many ways. It reminds experienced beekeepers that bees experience our interventions, even when we think we’re only taking a quick look. It helps separate flying weather from inspection weather, flowers from useful forage, and weather-blocked access from true shortage. It gives people a structured way to think before opening a hive, judging forage or worrying about stores. That’s the real purpose and the real value it gives.

You can find out more at https://apiaryforecast.com/ There’s currently a free trial and a special founder members offer. Swarm Outlook is free for everyone, no account needed.